This theory is being written down here, because of the sensational nature of bringing it up on social media or elsewhere improving the PC Party of Canada's (PCP) chance to form the next Government of Canada. As much as Justin Trudeau doesn't impress me the CPC damn well scares me.

The Background

SNC-Lavalin is a big construction company from Montreal that has exported their expertise around the world. As it happens, that expertise is graft, bribery and a particular skill at exploiting corruption. The skill-set was developed in Montreal itself, where the Rizzuto Mafia Family was intrinsically enmeshed with the local construction industry and getting in on any construction contracts required navigating their rules with envelopes of money. Ironically, that created a business niche for SNC in dealing with despotic and corrupt governments and entities all over the world and brought the benefits back to Canada as jobs and economic activity.

But eventually, they got caught with their hands in the cookie jar and fell afoul of Canadian law and therein lies the beginning of our story...

The current Liberal government was sensitive to the effect their criminal proceedings might have on the 9000 odd Canadians employed by SNC, mostly in Quebec. That is important because the Liberals wanted to establish their base of power in the province and scuttling 9000 jobs would be great fodder for the NDP who also seeks the same voters in Quebec. Thusly, a magical creature called a "Deferred Prosecution Agreement" was created to allow SNC to pay their legal and financial penalties without admitting guilt.

Public Services and Procurement described the potential DPA as a means of ensuring "corporate criminal conduct" is subject to effective, proportionate and dissuasive penalties" while mitigating "unintended consequences associated with a criminal conviction for blameless employees, customers, pensioners, suppliers and investors. Additionally, in some cases, a criminal conviction could lead to job losses and wider negative implications to the economy."

https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/ci-if/ar-cw/differee-deferred-eng.html

Its bullshit politics and it amounts to licking the taint of "too-big-to-fail" companies. But I digress.

While telling the Canadian people that we just sorta need to get one of these DPA's in place for no reason, the Liberal party was actually putting it in place specifically for SNC-Lavalin, which unsurprisingly availed itself of the new agreement.

The Story So Far

Unfortunately for SNC, Justin Trudeau hadn't considered that Jody Wilson-Raybould, his appointed minister overseeing the SNC-Lavalin prosecution thought the DPA was bullshit and opted to criminally prosecute SNC. Considering the government had contributed considerable resources in a farcical consultation process to prime Canadian's collective asshole's for ramming, this principled decision did not sit well with the PMO. Thus started the leaning on Minister Wilson-Raybould by various people in the PM's organizational hierarchy. Raybould resigned in protest to the constant stream of pressure from people, with varying levels of threats, suggesting that the DPA might be what she should consider. Instead of leaving the party in protest, she resigned her cabinet position but continued to represent her constituents as a Liberal. Shortly after, Jane Philpott similarly resigned. The boondoggle has continued and various people involved have had to make statements and release communications. Liberals say there is nothing going on, but I think there might be more strategy to their actions then first apparent.

Which Leads to... My Theory

Assumptions for this theory:

1. Justin Trudeau has to call an election for October 21, 2019 or earlier.
2. Reliable polling has CPC in the lead ahead of the Liberals
3. Michel Trudeau was the Trudeau child groomed for politics. (Michel died in 1998)
4. Justin Trudeau was the second (or worse) choice in his family for continuing their political dynasty.
5. Justin never wanted this role, but as part of a Liberal family felt like it was his obligation.

I am starting to believe that this whole debacle is preparation for Justin's departure as leader in preparation for the next election. Wilson-Raybould is being psychologically primed as the replacement who is ethically and morally above reproach. Why else would she remain in the party that treated her so poorly? She has had a taste of Ministerial power and that whets the appetite of a politician like nothing else in Canada, moving out of Cabinet is a demotion that removes that power. I would expect her to cross the floor to the PC party who has certainly dangled a sweet post-election Cabinet position in front of her already. It doesn't make any sense to not take the bite unless she has negotiated something in the back channel with the PMO.

Furthermore, the controversy is pablum at best as the PM is getting in trouble for "protecting Canadian jobs" and his opponent isn't suffering much in the way of repercussions. All the pressure apparently came in genteel Canadian style, with vague threats of replacement being the most gregarious.

If my gut is correct, JT will bow out before the election and JW-R will swoop into the race to replace him as party leader just before the election. This would capitalize on the mistake made by the CPC in making their aggressive and negative messaging about Justin Trudeau instead of the LPC in general. This is why I'm holding back my theory for the time being as I'd like to see the CPC fail far more than I want anyone else to Win/Lose the election. I believe the LPC has fed the CPC the fodder they need to rabidly hold onto destroying Justin Trudeau because their base is in such a tizzy about JT at the moment, blaming him for their percieveed failures in immigration and refugees and O&G pipelines. These problems aren't even a failure, but that's not an issue for the CPC voters frothed into a tizzy of "Justin Turdeau" hate.

Good luck CPC, if I'm right, you've been out-manoeuvred in a way that will leave egg on your face for a couple election cycles.

There you have it, I've been thinking about this for a couple weeks, and I'm going to keep this post private until a later date.